Poll: Warren Drops 15 Points in Home State, Trails Sanders in Massachusetts

Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders onstage before the start the Democratic primary debate in Charleston, S.C., February 25, 2020. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

A new poll conducted by MassINC Polling Group shows Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) trailing Senator Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) by eight points in her home state, and falling 15 points from the same poll conducted in October.

The poll, released ahead of super Tuesday — when Massachusetts will cast its Democratic primary votes — shows Sanders up 12 points in the same time frame, giving him a commanding lead with 25 percent. Warren is in second with 17 percent, and former South Bend, Ind. mayor Pete Buttigieg sits in third with 14 percent, in a virtual tie with former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg at 13 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden rounds out the top five at 9 percent.

“That’s a pretty good size lead,” Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the WBUR poll, said of Sanders’s performance.

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The same poll conducted in October showed Warren in a commanding lead with 33 percent of the vote, while Sanders sat third with 13 percent. But the two progressive senators have trended in opposite directions in recent months, with Sanders performing well in early primaries. The momentum seems to have shrunk the undecided vote with Friday’s poll showing only 4 percent remain undecided, compared to 15 percent in October.

The Friday WBUR poll shows that Warren’s supporters are the most likely to support another candidate in the general if she does not win the nomination, while Sanders’s supporters are the least likely to back a different candidate.

“What that means for the party is that if Sanders is not the nominee, the task of bringing Sanders’ supporters along to whoever the nominee is will be significant,” Koczela said.

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