Congressman Jim Jordan: Out.
Former Governor John Kasich: Out.
Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted: Out.
As Ohioans begin to contemplate who will replace Rob Portman in the U.S. Senate next year, some of the biggest names in Buckeye State Republican politics are bowing out early, creating openings for lesser-known candidates to organize and emerge on the national stage.
Without Jordan, one of Donald Trump’s most pugnacious defenders, or Kasich, a leading Trump critic, the race is looking less and less like a referendum on the former president. And while there may be talk of a brewing civil war among national Republican factions, it’s not particularly evident in Ohio, where Trump won by eight points in 2016 and 2020 and remains popular.
“Frankly, I think there is not a civil war here,” said one Ohio Republican strategist, who declined to be named so he could speak candidly about the dynamics of the race. “There’s no practical point in challenging Trump or Trumpism, since he won. There have been a few standout folks who have been critical or mildly critical. But it’s kind of like almost all of these people – with the exception of Jordan – are center-right, rational, hard-working kind of party people.”
Ohio Republican leaders said they were surprised Monday when Portman announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, citing “partisan gridlock” and a political culture that rewards “throwing out red meat” in the media rather than finding common ground to solve problems.
While Portman’s exit from the race makes it more difficult for Republicans to win back the Senate in 2022, Ohio Republican leaders are confident they still have the upper hand. The state has been trending red for years, Republicans control almost every statewide office, and the party has a deep bench of candidates who could make a plausible run.
The possible Republican contenders generally fall into four categories: current members of Congress, current statewide officeholders, former elected officials, and contenders who could emerge from outside of elected politics.
With Jordan out, other congressmen who could jump in the race include Steve Stivers, a business-friendly Republican and major general in the Ohio National Guard; Bill Johnson, a Trump-loyalist, businessman and U.S. Air Force vet; and Mike Turner, a lawyer and the former mayor of Dayton. Stiver or Turner could get a boost if they received the backing of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, one strategist said.
“I think every Republican member of Congress is probably thinking, ‘Well, maybe I ought to take a shot at this.’ It’s a big prize,” said Paul Beck, professor emeritus of political science at The Ohio State University. “The question for many of them is, can they raise money to support some kind of statewide campaign.”
Husted, who was seen by many as a strong contender, announced he’s not running. Instead, he’ll remain focused on running for governor down the road. But Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Attorney General Dave Yost, and Republican Party chairwoman Jane Timken could be interested, several Republican strategists told National Review. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, and former congressmen Jim Renacci and Pat Tiberi may also join the race. Both Mandel and Renacci previously challenged Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and lost.
“The good news is Republicans have so many candidates that their interested candidate meetings could be held in an auditorium, socially distanced. And viable Democratic candidates could have their meeting in a minivan,” said Mark Weaver, a Ohio Republican strategist.
The strategists also named some possible contenders from outside elected politics: venture capitalist Mark Kvamme, author and venture capitalist J. D. Vance, and Jim Tressel, the president of Youngstown State University and a former Ohio State head football coach.
One strategist said Kvamme, in particular, could shake up the race. Kvamme led the creation of the private, nonprofit JobsOhio economic development initiative under Kasich. “In my opinion, he could emerge as the rational, honest Donald Trump, because he could self-finance, he’s a billionaire, and he’s a really smart businessman,” the strategist said.
Steve Austria, a former congressman who is now a member of the Republican State Central Committee, said Republicans have a strong farm team. “And who knows, maybe there’s someone who hasn’t served in public office before who might make a formidable candidate,” he said, naming Tressel as a possible contender who could bridge party divides.
Kasich, a leading Trump critic who spoke at the Democratic National Convention, already has declared he won’t run for the seat. Speaking on CNN this week, he said “I think that I’m having influence talking with people like you. And it’s not like I’ve dropped out of the political arena, but it’s not something I have any interest in.”
It’s still too early to say which of the candidates will join the race, and there is likely no potential candidate who could clear the field of other contenders. Ohio is a hard state to run in, with several major media markets, and a terrain that includes industrial cities, suburbs, farms, the rust belt and Appalachia. And on top of navigating those varied constituencies, the candidate will have to strike the right note on Trump.
“They have to be conservative enough, and supportive of Trump enough, to make a credible case,” Weaver said.
While Trump’s style and personality may be divisive, many of his policies and his handling of the economy have broad support among Ohio Republicans, Weaver said.
A Trump endorsement would likely change the contours of the race, he said, but with Jordan out, it’s unclear which candidate is mostly likely to win Trump’s approval. Johnson, Renacci and Timken have all been outspoken supporters of the former president.
“Does anybody think he is going to not get involved in races? I don’t think that’s true,” Weaver said of Trump. “There’s only so much golf you can play.”
None of the most plausible candidates for the Senate seat have drawn Trump’s ire the way that, say, Georgia governor Brian Kemp or secretary of state Brad Raffensperger have, making it less likely Trump will specifically target them for defeat in 2022.
“None of these people are great critics” of Trump, said one strategist. “They’ve all been pretty cautious and supported the president when they could.”
Former Ohio governor Bob Taft said that to win in a primary, and then in the general election, a successful candidate needs to appeal to more than just Trump supporters.
“If you have a strong Trump backer with Trump support with some money, that’s not a lock. But whoever would run against him would have to have a very strong campaign,” Taft said.
“There still are a lot of John Kasich Republicans in Ohio,” Beck added.
To make a run for Senate, current office holders would have to give up their reelection bids. That’s a likely reason why Jordan isn’t going to run, as he’s in line to be the judiciary chairman in the House if Republicans win the chamber back in 2022. Weaver said most of the potential candidates currently in office will probably make the same decision.
“Politicians by nature are cautious,” Beck said. “And so, giving up what is likely an easy reelect in what will be a banner Republican year would be hard for any office holder.”
Beck added that the Ohio Republican Party has a history of working with candidates to avoid divisive primaries. He said the Democrats were probably hoping that Jordan would run, thinking the polarizing congressman could win the Republican primary and present them an opening in the general election. “They have very little bench strength,” he said of the Democrats, pointing at Congressman Tim Ryan and Dayton mayor Nan Whaley as likely contenders.
“They would have had trouble beating Portman,” Beck said. “On the other hand, they will see almost any Republican nominee, whoever that is, as somebody they could conceivably beat.”
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