“The filibuster is on the ballot in 2022,” Aaron Blake writes at the Washington Post:
Democrats have basically five good pickup opportunities in the Senate now: in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And in all five, their top contenders have made clear their opposition to the filibuster will be a feature of their campaigns.
With incumbent Democratic senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin firmly committed to keeping the filibuster, it’s nearly impossible to imagine circumstances in which the Senate scraps the 60-vote threshold in 2021 or 2022. But if Democrats keep the House and have 52 or 53 Senate seats, would they actually scrap the filibuster in 2023? My guess is that it’s more likely than not that they would do it. There are several incumbent Democratic senators (besides Sinema and Manchin) who don’t support nuking the filibuster, but they’d likely fall in line if there were enough pressure and the votes to actually succeed.