Virginia Polls Should Alarm Democrats

Terry McAuliffe campaigns for governor with President Biden in Arlington, Va., July 23, 2021.
(Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)
If the results on Virginia’s Election Day 2021 look anything like the current polls, the prognosis for Democrats a year down the road will be grim.


ne of the hazards of projecting national trends from a small number of off-year elections is that they may take place in states and localities that are unrepresentative of the country. Democrats have been doing poorly so far this year in special elections, yet they did very well, despite a summer-long scare in the polls, in the California recall. The campaign to recall Gavin Newsom led in the polls all August, trailed by 14.5 points in the final polls by mid September, and lost by 27 in the actual voting. That outcome should also remind us of the hazards of …

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