Though it’s not official yet, it is safe to assume that Donald Trump will be running for president in 2024.
But all the signs point to him running. This summer, Trump told Sean Hannity that he has made up his mind about running in 2024, and his former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, revealed that Trump had met with “cabinet members” at his Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey to discuss his future in politics.
Last month I pointed out that Joe Biden was handing 2024 to Trump on a silver platter. Despite taking office with a respectable approval rating, months of rising gas prices, inflation, and the border crisis chipped away at his approval ratings before his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan sent his approval ratings underwater, where they have remained ever since. His failure to defeat COVID also weighs him down like a cinder block—at the moment, his RealClearPolitics average approval is -10.4 points—and the rapid spread of the omicron variant threatens to bring it down further.
Biden’s incompetence has caused massive buyers’ remorse since the 2020 election, and now Trump leads him in several hypothetical 2024 match-up polls, with a current RealClearPolitics average of +4.8 points. This is enough to win the Electoral College definitively, if not by a landslide.
There is one huge caveat, though: few expect Joe Biden to run for reelection, and nearly two-thirds don’t want him to.
For months now, the White House has tried to convince the public that Joe Biden has every intention of running in 2024, but even Biden conceded that there was a big “but” when it comes to his 2024 intentions: “If I’m in the health I’m in now—if I’m in good health—then, in fact, I would run again.”
However, the leading Democrat to replace Biden on the ticket is Kamala Harris—perhaps the least likable politician since Hillary Clinton. In many ways, Biden still represents the Democrats’ best chance to keep the White House in 2024.
But, make no mistake about it, the 2024 election is Trump’s to lose.
“Unless there’s something coming out of left field I don’t see coming, it’s his nomination if he wants it,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Fox News Wednesday evening. “The Republican base appreciated him. We don’t appreciate all the things he does sometimes. But from a policy point of view, he was the most successful president from a conservative’s point of view since Ronald Reagan.”
As for winning the election, Graham said that “[Trump] will be in the White House in 2024 if he runs a disciplined campaign.”
Graham has a valid point. Sure, Trump’s blunt style of saying precisely what he means makes him appear genuine and lacking the usual B.S. of garden variety politicians, but it also gets him into trouble. He makes enemies out of allies by throwing them under the bus. Despite his effective leadership, his style often comes across as unpresidential and makes some people uncomfortable. One of the biggest problems I suspect Trump would have in a second term is finding people to fill various positions.
Despite a wildly successful national security record with Defense Secretary James “Mad Dog” Mattis, Trump later called him “the world’s most overrated general,” after leaving the administration following disagreements on Syria. This opened the door to Mattis attacking Trump. It didn’t have to be that way. Policy disagreements in an administration are nothing new in politics, but Trump seems to take things personally and burns bridges with a blow torch. His recent attacks on Mitch McConnell are similarly misguided, especially in the wake of their successful transformation of the judiciary over four years.
Trump can win in 2024. Frankly, he has everything going for him to win in a spectacular comeback. But, as Lindsey Graham said, he needs to discipline himself. He needs to not put his foot in his mouth and maintain alliances even with those he doesn’t agree with 100%. The 2024 election is his to lose.