(Al Drago/Reuters)
The war in Ukraine is still the biggest story in the world, but you can sense that the U.S. news cycle is starting to shift away from the war a bit. Other big stories are stepping into the spotlight — the Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, Trump’s de-endorsement of Mo Brooks because Brooks is now allegedly “woke,” Moderna’s seeking approval for its vaccine for kids, and so on.
This week, this newsletter has taken long looks at the state of the Russian economy under sanctions, the challenges of transferring an Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile system to Ukraine, and the risk-averse nature of Russian oligarchs. Last week, this newsletter studied why Putin’s eventual successor isn’t likely to see Eastern Europe all that differently, the impotence of international institutions, and the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon.
Today, let’s return our attention stateside for a bit — there are 228 days until the midterm elections, and 40 days until Ohio and Indiana hold their primaries.
Red Tsunami Warning
When the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, as the Biden administration had predicted, some analysts wondered if President Biden would enjoy a “rally around the flag” effect in his job approval numbers. If you look at the polls collectively . . . nope. It is difficult to see that the developments in Ukraine had any impact at all. Since last fall, Biden’s disapproval number has consistently been above 50 percent, and his approval rating has been hanging around 42 percent over at the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, and the numbers don’t look any different in the RealClearPolitics average.
A new Associated Press poll out this morning tells a familiar story:
There is widespread public support for sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, including a ban on importing Russian oil. However, President Biden has yet to see praise for his efforts to isolate Russia and aid Ukraine. Fifty-six percent of Americans think Biden’s response has not been tough enough.
With the crisis in Ukraine escalating, few Americans have a high degree of confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to effectively handle a crisis, effectively manage the military, or promote the standing of the United States in the world.
Fifty-six percent of Americans feel that Biden’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not been tough enough. Few believe his response has been too tough and only 36 percent say his response has been about right. Assessments of his response are split on party lines with 53% of Democrats saying his response is about right while most Republicans and independents believe it has not been tough enough.
You have to wonder if the debacle of the Afghanistan withdrawal is having a lingering effect on how Biden is perceived in this current foreign-policy crisis, particularly when you see poll results such as this one: “Few have overwhelming confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to manage his presidency. Confidence in his ability to manage the military dropped to 26 percent from 35 percent in January 2021. Americans’ confidence in his ability to listen to his advisers and experts declined even further to 32 percent, down from 47 percent in January 2021.”
In most parts of the country, President Biden will not be an asset to endangered House and Senate Democrats running for reelection. Biden’s job approval in Arizona is 36 percent — that’s not going to help Senator Mark Kelly, or make Senator Kyrsten Sinema feel much pressure. (Sinema isn’t up for reelection until 2024.) Biden’s approval rating is even lower in Georgia, at 33 percent — which won’t help Senator Raphael Warnock. In other states with potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents, it looks equally bad: His job approval is 42 percent in New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), 40 percent in Colorado (Michael Bennet), and 36 percent in Nevada (Catherine Cortez Mastio).
Democrats have high hopes of knocking off incumbent GOP senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin — the third straight cycle they’ve seen him as easy pickings. Here, Biden’s job approval is in the same ballpark at only 40 percent.
Republicans are defending open Senate seats in Ohio, where Biden’s job approval is 40 percent, in Pennsylvania, where his job approval is 36 percent, and in North Carolina, where his job approval is 37 percent. Democrats dream of knocking off incumbent senator Marco Rubio, but in Florida, Biden’s job approval is 36 percent.
In other words, all over the map, Biden will only be useful in turning out the vote in deep, deep blue corners of these contested states. It is conceivable that some endangered incumbents may not want Biden coming to their state at all.
As for Vice President Kamala Harris, her approval ratings are a few points lower than Biden’s — a pretty striking result, since there aren’t many policy differences between Biden and Harris. The problems of Harris as vice president have been discussed at length, but this week brought a new report that makes Harris look particularly petty and obsessed with her personal image instead of the actual problems facing the country. The anecdote that Harris kept expressing frustration about the photo of her on the cover of Vogue is just mind-boggling:
“Harris was wounded. She felt belittled by the magazine, asking aides: Would Vogue depict another world leader this way?” the duo reported.
Harris’ incoming press secretary Symone Sanders, who declined to comment, reached Vogue editor Anna Wintour to convey Harris’ frustration. Wintour, who did not respond to a request for comment, protested that she had chosen the picture personally because it made Harris “relatable,” according to Martin and Burns.
Incoming chief of staff Tina Flournoy was caught “off-guard by the anger in Harris’ circle” and contacted a senior Biden campaign official. Given the country’s myriad crises and the recent January 6th riot at the Capitol, “[t]he Biden adviser told Flournoy that this was not the time to be going to war with Vogue over a comparatively trivial aesthetic issue. Tina, the adviser said, these are first-world problems,” according to the excerpt.
(I have no idea who that unnamed Biden adviser is, but I do remember who retweeted a declaration that the inflation and supply-chain crises were “high class problems.”)
Do we know this anecdote is true? No, but it is a bit like the reports of staffer complaining that Harris doesn’t read her briefing materials. If Harris reads and studies her briefing materials thoroughly, she hides that fact amazingly well. There’s little sign that she is about to enjoy a sweeping turnaround in her public perception; she’s not going to be much of an asset for Democrats in the 2022 midterms, either.
An Ugly, Ugly Issue Environment
Finally, what Democrats should really be freaking out about is the accumulating evidence that the problems facing the country right now are unlikely to be resolved by November. Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that the argument that inflation would peak in the first quarter of this year is “falling apart” and pledged that “these policy actions and those to come will help bring inflation down near 2 percent over the next 3 years.” The next three years? Imagine high inflation bedeviling the American people, and the Biden presidency, until 2024 or 2025!
There’s also little or no sign of relief on gas prices:
“We’re now predicting a yearly national average of $3.99. I think that’s pretty likely to stick,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy. He says that prices at the pump reflect the current prices of about $115 for a barrel of oil. But if oil prices jump up by $20 per barrel — something not seen since 2008 — then the pace of retail gas price increases will accelerate again.”
In California, prices are already above six dollars per gallon in some places.
And those supply-chain issues aren’t quite gone. General Mills says they’re still having trouble getting Pillsbury dough or Totino’s pizza rolls to consumers, and project that they’ll be able to meet consumer demand 80 percent of the time in the ongoing quarter; in normal circumstances, they meet the demand 98 to 99 percent of the time. Maine syrup producers say they still can’t get plastic jugs. Fried fish is in short supply just as Lent increases demand — at least on Fridays. Girl Scout Cookies aren’t immune. I’ve also noticed that certain brands of shampoo never seem to be in stock at my local CVS.
Our Dominic Pino, who keeps an eye on the trade and economic issues that almost everyone else ignores, has been tracking the work stoppage at the Canadian Pacific freight-rail company — thankfully, the work stoppage was a brief one, but it was one more slowdown of getting goods from producers to consumers.
Oh, and on top of all that, the Biden administration expects even bigger waves of migrants at the country’s southern border in the coming months.
An unpopular president, high inflation, high gas prices, high food prices, pervasive economic frustrations from a labor shortage and supply-chain problems, a border crisis, and a widespread perception that the president isn’t being tough enough with an aggressive foreign autocrat launching a war in Europe. It’s just about the perfect storm for Democrats who wildly overpromised and underdelivered since taking over the House and Senate in January 2021.
And while the pandemic is fading from American life, let’s not forget Biden’s wildly unrealistic pledge: “I’m going to shut down the virus!” Lots of Americans just don’t see the president as an effective problem-solver anymore, and that perception will be difficult to change.
Republicans are consistently leading in the generic ballot questions of polls, which almost never happens. In fact, the GOP enjoyed an astounding advantage in the ABC News poll last month: “Republican congressional candidates have a 49 percent to 42 percent advantage over Democrats among registered voters, widening to 54 percent 41 percent among those who say they both are registered and certain to vote in November.” A 54–41 split on House elections in November would generate not merely a red wave but a red tsunami that would make the Republican waves of 2010 and 2014 look modest.
ADDENDUM: Once again, we’re having a webathon and asking for your support. And as one Twitter user observed, it’s better for Maddy to be the face of NR than me.