Spare me any political analysis that says that the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization will save Joe Biden and the Democrats in November.
It won’t. Any analysis you’ve read that claims Democrats now have a fighting chance in November is wrong.
How do we know this? First of all, abortion isn’t a top concern for most Americans. In fact, it’s nearly dead last, according to a recent McLaughlin & Associates poll, which found only 5% of voters call it a top concern.
“Only 5% said abortion was [the] top issue. That might change a little, but not with people who can’t afford food or gas or rent or medical bills,” pollster John McLaughlin said of the findings.
Related: Dem Pollster: Democrats Are Screwed
Another poll from USA Today/Suffolk University found abortion’s prevalence among midterm voters’ concerns to be insignificant as well, with only 15% of likely voters viewing abortion as the most important election issue. The poll did find that 62% of respondents called abortion an important issue, just not the most important issue — but even that shouldn’t give pro-abortion leftists hope for November. Why not? Because not everyone for whom abortion is an important issue is pro-abortion.
The left often thinks they’re the only side with political passion. They don’t realize that there are people as passionately pro-life as they are pro-abortion. According to a CNN poll taken after the Dobbs draft majority opinion was leaked, enthusiasm to vote in November increased slightly for both the left and the right.
But the question about whether Dobbs will have any impact on the coming midterms isn’t a hypothetical one at this point. We have ample evidence that voters are far more concerned about other things, and that Dobbs won’t change the trajectory of the midterm elections in November.
The draft opinion of Dobbs was leaked on May 2. In the wake of this leak, many predicted that this was a watershed moment that would greatly benefit the pro-abortion Democratic Party…except that after the opinion was leaked, the generic Republican edge over Democrats increased slightly. Today, the GOP still holds an edge in the RealClearPolitics average generic ballot, and the latest Rasmussen poll shows Republicans with a +8 advantage.
And then there’s Joe Biden’s polling. If Dobbs had any chance of benefiting Joe Biden, we would have seen some evidence of that in his polling as well. Yet his numbers continued to worsen after the Dobbs draft opinion was leaked.
Think Biden will get a bounce from the Dobbs ruling? Guess again. Biden’s approval ratings have only gotten worse since the draft opinion was leaked. (via @RealClearNews) pic.twitter.com/EBQX4ihOdi
— Margolis & Cox (@MargolisandCox) June 26, 2022
It’s been seven weeks since the draft opinion of Dobbs was leaked. That’s seven weeks for Americans to have braced for the final opinion, which wasn’t likely to change. Friday’s announcement merely made the inevitable official. If there was any time that public opinion was going to shift significantly, it was after the draft opinion was leaked because that was the moment that America realized the change was coming.