Trump’s Chances in New York May Be Better Than You Think

In April, during his visit to New York City for his bogus trial, former President Donald Trump hinted at a potential bid for the state in the 2024 election.

“We’re very close in New York, I understand,” Trump claimed. “We’re leading the country by a lot. A poll just came out a little while ago, as you saw yesterday that we have—we’re up in every swing state and up by a lot in every swing state. So I think we’re gonna do very well, and we’re gonna make a play for New York.”

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Trump continued, “Biden is the worst president in history and we have some very bad people here, but we have the greatest people, and they’re right behind me. We have a good chance of winning New York, in my opinion, but we’re gonna give it a shot.”

At the time, skeptics questioned whether Trump was serious or simply playing politics — I was too. However, considering the significant support he’s garnered in traditionally Democratic strongholds, his ambitions seem increasingly plausible. Subsequent polling from Siena College even revealed that Biden’s lead over Trump in New York had narrowed to single digits, suggesting a potentially competitive race ahead.

Now former Rep. Lee Zeldin is even saying that Trump has a shot at winning New York, and he’s someone whose opinion you should listen to because he came rather close to defeating Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022.

“President Trump is actually closer now at this point of this campaign than I was two years at this point of the governor’s race,” Zeldin told “Fox and Friends” host Rachel Campos-Duffy. “The state is continuing to shift right, and interestingly enough, a couple of weeks ago, I looked at the updated voter registration data for the state, yet one might think that a whole bunch of Republicans, conservatives have just given up and left the state — well turns out that the Democratic party registration is down over a hundred-thousand, while the Republican registration’s up, the conservative party registration is up, and people who are non-affiliated voters — it’s also up.”

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Related: Trump Is Embarrassing Biden on His Turf, and It’s Glorious

Zeldin also pointed to the most recent Emerson College poll — which he said undersampled Republicans, oversampled New York City, and didn’t even include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — showed Trump down just six points.

“President Trump can win New York. It won’t be easy, but it’s possible,” he posted on X/Twitter. “He can definitely win New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and other states that don’t get as much attention as the most frequently targeted swing states.”

Zeldin wrote in an op-ed for the New York Post last week that Trump has a real chance in New York.

Crucially, independent voters favor Trump by 10 points. Political pundits and high-paid consultants may dismiss this outright, but New York’s rightward shift in recent years is indisputable. And it could result in a game-changing flip this November. Think about it: Crime has surged, subways have become less safe. Public safety is at risk everywhere thanks to Democrats’ pro-criminal laws, like cashless bail. Criminal illegal migrants are raping 13-year-old girls in parks, assaulting our police officers and staying in luxury hotels at taxpayers’ expense. Antisemitism has soared.

And the more Democrats resort to lawfare to target Trump, the more New Yorkers see what could happen to them if they fall out of political favor. You could see the rightward shift in the 2022 governor’s race, when Kathy Hochul squeaked through by the slimmest margin of any Democrat in decades. And now her approval rating has fallen to a new low of 34% in the Emerson poll.

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He may be right, but does that mean Trump should spend money in New York? I wouldn’t say so yet. But think about this: if Trump can be competitive in New York, what does that say about his chances in the battleground states?

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