There is no denying that after Democrats forced Joe Biden out of the presidential race and installed Kamala Harris as the Democrats’ nominee, she enjoyed a surge of support. The polls quickly swung her way, giving her leads in both the national average and in several swing states.
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Democrats were elated at the idea that they not only had a chance but also that they could have the election in the bag now. Of course, most experts understood that Kamala’s honeymoon would end, and it indeed has. A string of new polls show Trump gaining ground and even leading in both national and battleground states.
This week, I reported that the highly rated New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by a point — which may not sound like a huge lead but translates to an Electoral College victory nonetheless. Also, Nate Silver’s latest election model projections give Trump a 63.8% chance of victory, compared to Kamala Harris’s 36%.
While many on the left are shrugging off the significance of Silver’s model and even some recent polls, CNN’s election analyst, Harry Enten, admitted on Monday that Harris is in serious trouble, particularly in Pennsylvania. “So I just want to take a look at Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania,” he said.
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Enten kicked off his analysis by emphasizing a dramatic shift in the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. “What we see is a tightening race,” he noted. Just a month ago, Harris held a modest lead, with New York Times polling showing her up by four points and Quinnipiac and Franklin and Marshall polls both giving her a three-point edge. But things have changed.
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“Look at polls that have come out over the last week or so, and what do we see? We see a much tighter race,” Enten explained. The latest data shows a tie between Harris and Trump in both the CBS YouGov poll and the CNN SSRS poll.
“This is part of an emerging pattern,” he added, signaling that the race in Pennsylvania has become “way, way, way too close to call at this particular point.”
We cannot overstate the importance of Pennsylvania. Experts agree that it is the so-called “tipping point” state that will decide the outcome of the election. Enten made this clear by presenting two scenarios. If Harris manages to win Pennsylvania, she would secure just 270 electoral votes — enough to defeat Trump. However, if Trump turns Pennsylvania red, he would clinch 287 electoral votes, enough to comfortably surpass Harris’s 251.
“This state is very, very important,” Enten reiterated.
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It’s so important and the race now looks so close there that Enten posited that Harris’s failure to select Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) may take on greater significance.
“If Kamala Harris loses in the state of Pennsylvania and that is the tipping point state… there are gonna be some real questions as to whether Kamala Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro,” Enten said. The implication is clear: with Pennsylvania polls getting “tighter and tighter and tighter” and trending toward Trump, Harris may come to regret not selecting a running mate who could have bolstered her standing in Pennsylvania.
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CNN’s Harry Enten Sounds Alarm About Harris’ Vanishing Lead In ‘Very Pivotal’ Swing State pic.twitter.com/Nlk0Hztm7S
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 9, 2024
This is hardly a reason for Trump supporters to celebrate. The election is still too close for comfort.