Top O’ the Briefing
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It’s crunch time in this most critical of all presidential election years and Americans all across the political spectrum are forgetting that they’ve vowed to not believe political polls.
A thousand times or more.
Ascertaining whether a presidential political poll is credible is nigh on impossible. Yes, some pollsters have better track records than others, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that what they are doing in the current environment is trustworthy. Anyone who has ever participated in a poll knows that the process is inexact and the questions can be phrased with the intent to nudge the response in a certain direction.
This is from a column I wrote at the beginning of April:
Political polling can often seem like something wizards in a tower and witches around a cauldron collaborated on. I’ve been polled several times over the years, and very often, the questions were framed in a way that left me feeling that any answer I gave would be unsatisfying.
To be sure, it’s better to be ahead in the polls than behind. You know what’s even better, though? Being ahead after all the votes that come out of the ether after election day are counted. We all know that’s where things get weird in our corner of the 21st century.
Aye, there’s the rub.
The United States of America is in an electoral “Twilight Zone” episode now, where the reality we once knew is often distorted beyond all recognition. Mail-in ballots seem to appear out of the ether to swing elections, always helping the Democrats. It’s understandable that conservative voters have lost faith in the process.
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Oddly, many of the people I know who don’t trust anything about our elections are still clinging to the polls. I’ve been bumping into a lot of them lately. The disconnect is understandable, though. Adrift on a sea of uncertainty, we need to hang on to something to keep ourselves from drowning. Good news in the polls can feel like a life preserver while we’re waiting for the election.
The polling numbers for Donald Trump could soon start an inexorable upward trend. It’s difficult to keep the Joyful Kamala Girl Boss myth going, after all. As C.A. Skeet wrote over the weekend, the Dem lapdogs in the media seem to be wearying of the task.
Matt covered a new poll that has Trump ahead of Harris for the first time since the Democratic National Convention, but it’s only by a point. I think that a Republican has to be ahead by a significant amount to be outside of the margin of Magic Mail-In Ballot Machine tomfoolery, and a single point lead doesn’t provide much comfort.
I’ve recently been providing polling data from the 2016 election at the beginning of the Briefing. At no point during that cycle was Hillary Clinton behind. It got close near the end, but she was up by more than seven in the middle of October. She had a three-point lead on election day, which should have been insurmountable.
Had it been real.
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