What If Joe Biden . . . Really Is the Strongest Option for Democrats?

Elections
Joe Biden addresses a campaign rally in Iowa City, Iowa, May 1, 2019. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Fans of Joe Biden who contend that he’s the only one who’s electable and that the other candidates are not have another small but intriguing bit of data to support their view. An OH Predictive Insights survey completed May 1-2 in Arizona asked respondents their view about hypothetical matchups in the 2020 election.

Biden is the only Democrat who was ahead of Trump, with 49 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. Trump led Warren by 5 percentage points, Beto O’Rourke by 6 percentage points, and Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg by 9 percentage points. (A good indicator of the genuine top tier is the list of which candidates pollsters feel are worth asking about in potential head-to-head matchups.)

Arizona is one of those traditionally red states that has trended purple in recent cycles. In 2016, Trump won Arizona, but only by a 49 percent to 45.4 percent margin, and Kyrsten Sinema narrowly won last year’s U.S. Senate race.

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