Percentage who think Trump wins a second term now at… 60?


If perception is indeed the harbinger of reality, there might be a smidgen of good news out there for Donald Trump this week. One of the latest surveys out from Scott Rasmussen asked voters if they thought Donald Trump was poised to win a second term. You can read whatever you like into the numbers, but the percentage who believe that’s either somewhat likely or very likely has now reached 60. That’s the highest recorded thus far and up significantly from January of this year.

The number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 continues to grow.

The latest survey found that 60% of voters nationwide now believe it is at least somewhat likely President Trump will be successful in next year’s campaign. That’s up from 57% in May, 54% in April, 50% in March and 46% in February…

Data released earlier showed that 41% of voter believe none of the Democrats running will beat the president. On the other hand, 36% believe any of them will do so. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe none of the Democrats running can defeat President Trump. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats believe any of them are likely to defeat him.

Interestingly, the people at the extreme ends of the curve are stacking up on the “four more years” side. Sixteen percent say it’s not at all likely that Trump gets a second term, but double that amount – 32% – say that it’s very likely he will be re-elected.

We should keep in mind that these numbers have nothing to do with the President’s approval rating (which barely drifts far away from 46% these days) nor with how likely any of the respondents are to vote for Trump themselves. That sixty percent includes both those who are hoping Trump wins next November as well as those who think it will happen but are horrified by the prospect.

As for me, if I had been called up to answer that poll I’d nearly have been at a loss. Even today I would most likely give Trump a better than 50/50 chance of a second term, but not by much. If the Democrats nominate some sort of centrist that’s palatable to the independent voters, Trump’s chances go down. If they wind up with a liberal flamethrower who can readily be tarred as a socialist, Trump’s chances should be very solid.

One other thought on Scott Rasmussen’s numbers in closing. Back in January Trump still had the Russia, Russia, Russia story hanging over his head with the media beating that drum every day of the week. There were probably a lot of Democrats who fervently believed that he would either resign or be impeached before we got to 2020. With that mostly in the rearview mirror, I’m guessing that more people are either hoping or fearing that he can pull off that 2016 magic one more time.

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