A new survey from Mason-Dixon shows Kentucky governor Matt Bevin tied with Democratic attorney general Andy Beshear in his race for reelection, each with 46 percent support among likely voters. In the most recent poll of the contest, taken by Gravis in June, showed Bevin with a six-point lead. But last time Mason-Dixon surveyed the race, in December 2018, Beshear had a substantial advantage, leading the incumbent Republican 48 to 40 percent.
As a sitting GOP governor in a state continuing to shift to the right, Bevin has a bit of an advantage, so the poll comes as a bit of a surprise. But according to tracking data from Morning Consult, Bevin is the least popular governor in the country, and he has maintained a negative net-approval rating throughout most of his tenure.
Even so, his approval rating has risen quite a bit since this time last year, despite having to weather a narrow primary challenge earlier this year. According to the new Mason-Dixon data, Bevin now has the support of more than 75 percent of Republicans, along with a surprising 22 percent of Democrats. Independent voters favor Beshear by eight points, 46 to 38 percent. Unsurprisingly, the Democrat has a substantial advantage in the urban and suburban areas around Louisville and Lexington; Bevin has a double-digit lead in both the eastern and western rural portions of the state.
The new poll also found that fewer than one-third of Kentucky voters support impeaching President Trump (29 percent) while more than two-thirds oppose impeachment (65 percent) and 6 percent are undecided. Among independent voters, those numbers remained nearly the same, with 30 percent supporting impeachment and 58 percent opposing it.