Restaurant reservations have trended downward in recent weeks, according to data from OpenTable. And according to a recent poll from Gallup, some 45 percent of households are being hurt by price increases. Factors like these could accelerate the number of people who leave their jobs and look for better pay.
Still there have been many positive signs recently. New weekly unemployment claims have fallen steadily over the course of the year, reaching pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit narrowed in October, and consumer spending rose at its fastest pace since March, according to the Commerce Department. Those markers had many analysts revising upward their expectations about economic growth in the final three months of 2021.
CNBC is referring to it as “The Great Resignation.” And October’s numbers show no sign that it’s going to be slowing down in the next few months.
High turnover is primarily concentrated in essential frontline industries where jobs can’t be done remotely. Some of September’s biggest losses come from the already strained leisure and hospitality, retail, manufacturing and health services industries. People left their jobs fastest in the Southern region of the country.
With the pace of quitters, Pollak says, “employers are basically having to replace their entire staff in just a couple of months. It’s really quite dramatic.”
About 34.4 million people have quit their jobs this year, with more than 24 million doing so since April. By comparison, 36.4 million people quit their jobs in all of 2020.
There were still 10.4 million jobs available in September, meaning that there were 10 jobs available for every seven unemployed people. And a lot of those openings are in retail, where in-person shopping during the Christmas season is still popular and managers are desperately trying to fill holes in their staffing.
Still, it may not be enough to get people into the workforce to keep pace with skyrocketing consumer demand. Already, airlines are having to cut flights and manufacturers are signaling shipping delays due in part to staffing shortages.
The high consumer demand paired with labor shortages is creating a “traffic jam” that will continue into the holiday season, Pollak says. Workers willing to take on seasonal, often in-person work, could benefit from higher wages and attractive benefits: “That huge additional demand is putting enormous strain on employers to expand their capacity in a constrained labor market,” Pollak says.
There’s a revolution in work happening in America. It’s only vaguely taking shape right now. Workers have more pull than they’ve had in many years and are demanding changes in hours, in pay structure, in benefits. It will be a long time sorting through everything before things settle back to normal.
But we’ll never go back to what work was before the pandemic.