According to the newest Morning Consult Poll, if Donald Trump were to be convicted of one of the 91 charges he’s facing, he would lose 51% of his support. And if he were sentenced to prison, the number goes up to 55%.
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The Trump campaign is aware of these numbers or similar metrics, having run their own internal polls. Whether the Morning Consult poll is an outlier or not, the fact is that Trump would lose at least some support. How much it would cost him in November remains to be seen.
It’s a seductive idea to believe that if Trump is actually convicted his support will rise. After all, his numbers rose after he was indicted. But being formally charged with a crime and being declared “guilty” are two different things. Polls released after the indictments from March to April 2023 showed Trump getting a boost in support.
A Trump conviction won’t change the minds of a majority of his supporters. But in a race as close as this one figures to be, Trump can’t afford to lose any support at all in swing states.
At the moment, however, despite the warning signs about being convicted, the poll contains great news for the former president.
Voters’ reluctance to support a convicted Trump is one of the few dark spots for the former president in the poll that otherwise shows him growing his margin over Mr Biden in a head-to-head contest.
Trump leads Mr Biden by an average of 6 percentage points in the seven critical swing states that will likely decide the 2024 presidential election, according to the poll.
The former president romped to victory in the first two Republican primary contests and is poised to sew up his party’s nomination in the coming weeks.
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Trump has so far successfully painted himself as a victim of Biden-controlled prosecutors, at least with Republican voters. How that dynamic changes for the November election, if it does, will tell the tale for Trump.
Two in 10 voters who said they cast ballots for Trump in 2020 said they would not be willing to do so again in November if he’s found guilty, the poll showed. The number is even higher for those who supported him in 2016, at 25%.
Trump’s team seems to acknowledge the cold reality that the 2024 presidential race won’t just determine whether he occupies the Oval Office again, but whether he might inhabit a prison cell.
The Republican base has changed since 2016. And the so-called “double-haters” who despise both Trump and Biden are breaking against Trump 8-2 if he’s convicted.
It would be an uphill climb for Trump if he’s convicted of a serious crime.