Biden and the Democrats Are in Denial About the 2024 Race

It’s true: Donald Trump makes Democrats insane.

Joe Biden is telling anyone who will listen that the polls are wrong, wrong, wrong, that he’s not losing minority votes, and that Democrats are excited to vote for him.

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Axios reported last week that “in public and private, Biden has been telling anyone who will listen that he’s gaining ground — and is probably up — on Donald Trump in their rematch from 2020.” 

On what evidence does Biden base this analysis? “Hope.”

“While the press doesn’t write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump,” Biden told donors during a West Coast swing last week.

The New York Times politics guru, Nate Cohn, talks about “disengaged voters,” and “low turnout voters.” Trump’s lead “is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.”

In other words, all the cool, smart kids are voting for Biden while the kids in dunce caps are voting for Trump. 

If they paid closer attention to politics, read the New York Times, and got up off the couch on election day to vote for Biden, he would win in a landslide.

I respect Nate Cohn, whose analyses are usually very good. But this is nuts. If you’re going to analyze the race, use the tools you have at hand; polls, expert opinion, etc. Don’t put on a pointy wizard hat and predict what’s going to happen based on “hope.”

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This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.

Trump’s dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden. (Author emphasis)

Note how many ways Mr. Cohn uses the word “hope” without saying it. 

Cohn writes, “Trump’s strength among nonvoters means the exact number of new voters could be decisive.” This is true. But Cohn concludes, “Democrats can hope that November’s election will draw a disproportionately anti-Trump group of irregular voters to the polls.”

Hope springs eternal for Chicago Cubs fans and Joe Biden.

Simon Rosenberg, a long-time Democratic strategist, is also pushing the Pollyanna agenda. He told The New Yorker’s Isaac Chotiner that the anti-Trump Republican “zombie vote” would be decisive.

Republicans have had to go vote in these primaries, and a large number are not choosing him, right? They’re not choosing maga. A big chunk of the Republican coalition became loosened. We’re seeing that play out in the Republican primary. You’re also seeing it within the unprecedented rebellion against Trump happening among Republican leaders. There are two Republican former Vice-Presidents [Dick Cheney and Mike Pence] who are not supporting Trump, a former Party nominee [Mitt Romney], a former Vice-Presidential nominee [Paul Ryan].

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Chotiner pointed out that, even though 19% of Republican primary voters were still voting against Trump, “that’s a smaller percentage than in any other Republican or Democratic primary in the past twenty-four years.”

Rosenberg claimed, “It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. None of that matters.” All those Republicans coming out against Trump. He can’t win!

A campaign based on wishful thinking and hope generally doesn’t fare well on election day.

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