We can quibble about which specific date represents the peak of the Omicron wave, but it was likely sometime in the second week of January. On the CDC chart, 1.3 million new Covid-19 cases were reported January 10, and the seven-day average spiked on January 15, at a bit more than 805,000.On the New York Times chart, the highest point of the seven-day average of new cases was January 14, at 806,000, with more than 1.4 million cases were reported January 10. And once again, keep in mind, these are undercounts; not everyone who tests positive with an at-home test tells their doctor or local health authorities, or goes in for a PCR test at a doctor’s office or hospital. (For example, I’m not in the official numbers right now.)
Late this week, the numbers are way down from those heights. On the CDC chart, the most recent updated day is Wednesday, with just 302,000 cases. On the New York Times chart, the number for Thursday is 312,000.
If the rate of decline continues at the current pace, we should be back at pre-Omicron case numbers in… another two to four weeks? Maybe five or six if we’re unlucky? Sometime around the first or second week of March?
And with 250 million Americans having received at least one shot, 212 million Americans fully vaccinated, 89 million Americans boosted, and at least 77 million Americans having had an infection… there should be really very few Americans walking around with no form of protection or immunity. Those who haven’t been eligible for shots, kids under five, are the demographic least likely to have serious health consequences from a Covid-19 infection, and parents who want their young children to get vaccinated will have that option soon.
If this isn’t herd immunity, how far away can we be?
If there was one day in this pandemic where it became clear we were dealing with something unlike any other crisis, it was March 11, 2020 — the president addressed the nation, the NBA suspended the season, Broadway theaters shut down, the markets crashed, and we were reminded there are few things in life more dangerous than traveling with Tom Hanks.
After two years of having our lives turned upside down, wouldn’t it be nice to declare, on March 11, 2022, that the Covid-19 pandemic is effectively over and done with, and we can all go back to normal life?