(Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
As of this writing, Russia has not invaded Ukraine. But the outlook certainly seems grim; U.S. government officials say they haven’t seen any signs of that alleged Russian partial withdrawal, and Biden’s comments this morning make it sound like he expects Russia to invade Ukraine any day now:
Q: Mr. President, how high is the threat of a Russian invasion right now?
THE PRESIDENT: It’s very high.
Q Why?
THE PRESIDENT: It’s very — because they have not — they have not moved any of their troops out. They’ve moved more troops in, number one. Number two, we have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine…
Q: Do you think he’s going to go through with this, sir? Is your sense that this is going to happen now?
THE PRESIDENT: Yes. Not —
Q When?
THE PRESIDENT: I — my sense is this will happen within the next several days.
And the amount of smoke from the chimneys at the Russian embassy in Kiev suggest Russian diplomats are burning sensitive documents… which suggests those diplomats probably think their embassy won’t be secure sometime soon. And those Russian diplomats might have a really good reason to think their embassy won’t be secure sometime soon, such as knowledge that Russia and Ukraine will soon be at war.
No American president or his administration has perfect influence or unlimited leverage over the actions of other country. But there’s a grim difference between the foreign policy crisis of Ukraine now and the foreign policy crisis of Afghanistan a few months ago. In Afghanistan, the Biden administration seemed blindsided and in denial, and clearly wanted to wash their hands of the catastrophe as quickly as possible.
Here and now, the Biden administration doesn’t seem blindsided, and they certainly aren’t in denial. They’re not distracted or eager to move on to other issues. For all of the Biden administration’s flaws – and yikes, do they have flaws! – this administration seems to have thrown a lot of effort, energy and attention into deterring a Russian invasion. Biden has made his share of mistakes regarding Russia in his first year, but by Biden’s standards, this is a full-court press, and pulling out all the diplomatic stops.
And it still might not be enough.
The other day, Kevin watched Biden’s remarks on Russia and concluded Biden is a mess: “Biden is slurring his words, getting lost in the middle of short sentences, and in general acting like a grandpa who cannot figure out how his new phone works.” If Russia invades, it means Biden is a mess who’s thoroughly ineffective, who can’t achieve his policy goals even when he and his team give 110 percent effort.
And the rest of the world, from Beijing to Pyongyang to Tehran will know it.