A new Wall Street Journal poll is out and it shows no improvement for the electoral prospects of Democrats going into the midterm elections in November.
In fact, on some key issues, Democrats have lost ground to Republicans.
Despite the overall approval of Biden’s state of the union speech last week and support from Americans on Biden’s actions taken to combat the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden’s approval still stands at 42 percent, which is what it was in mid-November.
And voters’ approval of Democrats on the economy, on their pandemic response, and on education has all worsened since the mid-November benchmark.
Meanwhile, Democratic advantages narrowed over Republicans on issues related to improving education and the Covid-19 response. A 16-percentage-point Democratic edge on which party would best handle the pandemic was down to 11 points, while a 9-percentage-point lead on education issues was down to 5 points.
When asked about which party was best able to protect middle-class families, the 5-point advantage for Democrats four months ago evaporated and left the parties essentially tied on the question.
The Democrats’ hope that Biden’s “reset” after the state of the union address would improve their position proved to be misplaced.
Still, the challenges for Democrats haven’t significantly changed how voters said they expect to vote this year: 46% of voters said they would back a Republican candidate for Congress if the election were today, compared with 41% who favored a Democrat, with Republicans gaining support among Black and Hispanic voters since the last Journal poll.
That 5-point GOP edge compared with a 3-point lead in November. Democrats currently hold a narrow edge in the House and control the 50-50 Senate, because Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties.
With a little less than eight months to go before the election, what chance do Democrats have to flip those numbers and exceed expectations?
You can never say never in politics today but something truly historic would have to happen for Democrats to hang on and keep control of both the Senate and the House. Then again, Democrats aren’t going to lie down and let the GOP just take control. They have a strong fundraising operation, their candidate recruitment — especially in the Senate — has far exceeded the Republicans, and the bump for the GOP in redrawing district lines is less pronounced than expected.
But the logic of numbers favors the GOP, which only needs to take five net congressional seats and one net Senate seat to wrest control from the Democrats. Recent polls aren’t making the Democrats feel any more confident.