“An army marches on its stomach,” Napoleon was supposed to have said. That truism is relevant even today with 180,000 Russians swarming over some of the most fertile and productive farmland in the world.
The destruction of farmland and the interruption in Ukrainian wheat and produce will only make the worldwide supply chain problems worse. Ukraine is still one of the world’s major breadbaskets, and losing much of the production for the region is going to drive up prices.
For whatever reason — probably incompetence — the Russian resupply system has broken down, and soldiers are having to forage for their food. Some soldiers are paying for a meal. Others are begging for it. Many are simply bursting into residences and taking what they want.
Previous marching armies were more than likely to leave the occupants of the raided house dead. But there’s no evidence of widespread murder for food among the invading Russian troops.
Ukraine’s military said early Sunday that Russian forces were largely busy replenishing losses in people and equipment with otherwise little movement by the invading army. Russia also has been mobilizing people in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, occupied by Russia, to reinforce its military, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Russian Defense Ministry said Sunday that it fired a number of long-range weapons at targets in Ukraine, including its new Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile. It is the second time in as many days Russia said it has employed the weapon Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled in 2018. Western and Ukrainian experts have cast doubt on Russia’s initial claim of using the sophisticated missile.
Russia’s ministry also said it struck a military base in Ukraine’s Zhytomyr region where it alleged foreign fighters were located.
You might expect supply snafus during the first week or so of the war. But now, three weeks into the conflict, Russia is still not able to adequately feed its troops or fuel its tanks, according to a Pentagon source who spoke to Stars and Stripes.
“We talked back in week one about how they hadn’t planned properly for logistics and sustainment, how they were struggling with fueling and even feeding their troops,” the official said. “We’ve seen them try to overcome some of those … issues, but they’re still struggling to sustain their troops in the field.”
The U.S. has also seen “anecdotal indications” that Russian morale is lagging due to “poor leadership, lack of information that the troops are getting about their mission and objectives” and their surprise at “being resisted as fiercely as they have been,” the official said.
This is what happens when war planning is badly botched. Putin was confident of a short, lightning war leading to a quick victory. He didn’t get it and must now improvise other plans.
“We absolutely think that while [the Russians] still have the majority of their combat power available, [the fact that] they’re talking about resupply and resourcing tells you that they are beginning to get concerned about longevity here,” the official said.
Meanwhile, morale is low with Russian troops — as it would be for any troops who are forced to move on an empty stomach. The question for Putin will be whether he can fix his resupply problems before more of his troops desert the army and he’s faced with a mutiny.