Internal Democratic polling has leaked, and it shows that Biden’s debate performance has had an immediate disastrous impact on his campaign.
“A confidential polling memo circulating among anxious Democrats is confirming some of their worst fears: President Joe Biden’s support has started to tumble in key electoral battlegrounds in the wake of his disastrous debate performance in Atlanta, and Biden’s diminished standing is now putting previously noncompetitive states like New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico in play for Donald Trump,” reports Peter Hamby of Puck News. “The memo was put together after the debate by OpenLabs, a progressive nonprofit that conducts polling and message-testing for a constellation of Democratic groups, including the 501(c)4 nonprofit associated with Future Forward, the preferred Super PAC for Biden’s reelection campaign.”
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The poll, which was conducted within 72 hours after the debate, reveals that 40% of 2020 Biden voters now believe he should end his campaign, a notable increase from just 25% in May. Additionally, Biden is losing support among swing voters, with a 2-to-1 majority saying he should exit the race.
“This is, of course, only a single poll, conducted during the initial aftershocks of the debate,” Hamby cautions, “It will take a few weeks to determine if Biden’s slippage in the polls is a trend and not a blip. But given their reputation inside the party and connections to Future Forward, OpenLabs is a firm that Democratic campaigns take seriously.”
Related: Joe Biden Gives the Worst Excuse for His Terrible Debate Performance
The poll shows that more states were in play than previously thought before the debate, and are now even closer afterward. For example, Colorado, which last voted Republican in 2004, had Biden up only 3.7 points before the debate. Post-debate, Biden’s lead is just 1.9 points. Biden’s margin in Minnesota went from 2.4 points to just 0.4 points, and in Maine, it went from 2.2 points to just 0.2 points.
The poll shows Biden went from a small lead in New Mexico and Virginia before the debate to small deficits in both states afterward. Trump also now leads in New Hampshire by nearly three points.
When you combine all the state polling and generate an electoral map, it shows Trump winning by a landslide.
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This is what the electoral map looks like based the OpenLabs internal poll. pic.twitter.com/JPun8lqG3j
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) July 3, 2024
Even worse for Biden is the fact that a key talking point they were using post-debate is now gone, as the OpenLabs poll found that several potential alternatives poll better than Biden in battleground states.
The White House, the Biden campaign, and Biden himself are engaged in extensive gaslighting, struggling to control the narrative amid growing calls for him to drop out. According to reports, at least 25 House Democrats are planning to publicly call for Joe Biden to drop out of the race.
The New York Times is calling on the Democratic Party to take the baton from Joe Biden and hand it to Kamala Harris, thinking that she can win the race.
“Her polling before this debate was not great — her favorables are as dismal as Biden’s — but recent polls in swing states have shown she could gain trust with voters should she step in for the president,” suggests columnist Lydia Polgreen. “Unlike a drafted candidate, she would start with low expectations she could quite easily exceed. In a world filled with peril, she has been involved in major national security issues, not relegated to ribbon cuttings. Paired with, say, a strong, centrist governor like Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Andy Beshear of Kentucky as her running mate, she could win this.”
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Harris is the most unpopular vice president in history, and prior to the debate, she polled even worse against Trump than Biden. There’s very little reason to believe that she could pull off a victory, and the only thing she brings to the table is the ability to inherit Biden’s campaign war chest.
Regardless, the prospect of switching candidates at this stage of the election is politically risky and would be a legal nightmare for the Democratic Party.