House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is refusing to bring the Democrat-passed military aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to the floor. He wants two or three separate bills on the funding as he tries to split military assistance for Ukraine from the rest of the funding package.
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Johnson and most Republicans are upset that the Democrat-led Senate didn’t include border security measures in the military aid bill that they wanted.
But Democrats are preparing to do an end run around Johnson and employ a little-used parliamentary gimmick known as a “discharge petition.” Democrats need 218 signatures on the petition, which means they’re going to need some help from the GOP to make it happen.
Even opponents of the aid package know that if it comes to the floor, it will pass by a wide margin. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said on a conservative talk show he’s a “hard no” on passing Ukraine aid, but “if it were to get to the floor, it would pass – let’s just be frank about that.”
So Johnson, who wants to keep his caucus from fracturing over Ukraine aid by separating it from aid for Israel and Taiwan, is going to propose treating each nation’s aid package separately.
Also, it might be very difficult for Democratic Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to get 4 GOP signatures on the petition.
Modern partisanship places immense pressure on lawmakers not to break with party leadership and hand control of the floor to the other side.
So far, not a single House Republican has said they would join a discharge petition.
Johnson told reporters on Tuesday he “certainly” opposes a discharge petition and hopes “that would not be considered.”
Democrats acknowledge the maneuver would require at least a handful of Republicans signatures – and likely more, given progressive opposition to Israel aid. But they’re skeptical.
“Who knows if [Republicans] ever actually come through and sign something,” said one senior House Democrat. “I’m suspicious that there are enough of them who have the courage to do that.”
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Whether they have the “courage” or not isn’t the issue. Going against the speaker of the House is never easy, and Republicans who might support Ukraine aid don’t want to kneecap their own speaker.
“This place runs on majority… think we’ll probably do it on a discharge,” Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) chair of the centrist New Democrat caucus, told USA TODAY in an interview last week.
She argued that bringing the left wing of her party on board would be possible by adding conditions that the Israel aid is used “in accordance with international law.” In addition to those lawmakers, Kuster predicted there are likely more than the five necessary Republicans willing to stand up to their GOP leaders.
Still, passing the foreign assistance will be no easy task. As the Senate prepared to vote for the aid bill Monday evening, Johnson released a statement saying the House would not consider the package because it does not include border security policy.
Even with a successful discharge petition, it will be an uphill climb for Democrats to get it done. The Democratic left is apoplectic over Israel’s conduct during the war and could easily hold up the whole package with unacceptable restrictions on Israeli aid.
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Biden apparently doesn’t have the energy to lobby Congress for his bill. We don’t hear much of Biden calling dozens of congressmen asking for their support. The tired old man is fading, and it’s now affecting U.S. national security.
Ukraine funding will probably pass, but the foreign aid bills won’t all be finished before the end of next month.