Everything We Thought We Knew About Elections Is Changing

Have you noticed lately that we can’t rely on the past to guide us through this election? Changes are definitely happening. For one thing, we appear to be in the process of a major racial realignment, in which black and Latino voters are shifting to the Republican Party. Joe Biden’s 2020 advantage among black voters has declined by over 20% in various polls. We’re also seeing younger people undergoing the same shift.

Things have changed so dramatically that it’s likely to affect how Democrats campaign. We’re already seeing it happen. Last week, we learned that an influential data scientist had warned major Democratic donors in a confidential memo not to register young and black voters ahead of the 2024 election because they’re likely going to vote for Donald Trump.

“Indeed, if we were to blindly register nonvoters and get them on the rolls, we would be distinctly aiding Trump’s quest for a personal dictatorship,” Aaron Strauss warned in the memo, citing recent polling showing Trump’s strength with unregistered voters. 

For our VIPs: Is Joe Biden Alienating Lower- and Middle-Class Voters?

The Biden campaign, however, still believes that these voters will shift back as we get closer to the election. It’s true that polling may not be a great way to predict whether these voters will actually come out and vote for Trump in November, but it nevertheless shows that Democrats have a real challenge as demographics that were once reliable Democrat votes are becoming less so.

“The left’s challenge with non-white voters is much deeper than it first appears,” Adam Carlson, a data analyst with the Brunswick Group, explained. “A less racially divided America is an America where people vote more based on their beliefs than their identity. This is a big challenge for Dems.”

8 months out from the election, polls are still suggesting 2024 will be the largest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed⁰
Here are the aggregated crosstabs from non-partisan GE polls from reputable pollsters fielded in Feb 2024

First up is Biden vs Trump
🧵 pic.twitter.com/ojRbBtFu6z

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) March 5, 2024

Indeed it is. It looks like their formerly tried and true method of voter registration drives to increase turnout on Election Day may not be the silver bullet they have been in the past. According to a new Marquette Law School poll, the bulk of those who aren’t registered to vote yet lean significantly toward Trump.

expect Democrats to very subtly stop talking about how important it is to register new voters and increase turnout, and how actually voting is sort of lame if you think about it pic.twitter.com/YFjJJMtx0O

— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) April 4, 2024

It’s somewhat ironic that Democrats are the party that believes in automatic voter registration yet currently, indications are that such policies would benefit Republicans. I personally still don’t think it’s a great idea, and it’s more likely to inflate voter rolls with low-propensity voters. 

The Republican National Committee needs to replicate what Ron DeSantis accomplished in Florida. In his first term alone, Republicans erased the Democratic Party’s voter registration advantage in Florida, turning a +263,269 Democrat advantage to a +292,533 GOP advantage—a swing of 556,000 registered voters.

The rules of the game are changing, and the GOP needs to take advantage of the moment.