War Weariness Begins to Settle Over Ukraine

Ukraine has been under the gun for more than two years, and the constant Russian attacks have begun to wear on the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.

Needing fresh conscripts for the fight, the Ukrainian legislature passed a bill that would govern how Ukrainians are called up for military service. Earlier this year, the eligible draft age was lowered from 27 to 25. How many of those new draft-eligible men will be called up has yet to be determined.

The new law is controversial. Citizens want Ukraine to win but don’t want their loved ones to go off and fight. But front-line troops have been fighting for two years without a break. There’s no regular rotation to take the exhausted troops off the frontline and give them a breather.

Originally, soldiers were going to be rotated home and demobilized after 36 months of service. However, the length and intensity of the war forced the defense department to scrap that plan. The draft law passed on Thursday will set up an electronic registry that will allow draft-eligible men to register online.

After President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signs it, those eligible for military service will have 60 days to register either in person or through the electronic system. 

CNN:

While soldiers will receive improved pay and longer leave periods, the bill did not set a deadline on the time soldiers must spend on the battlefield. It said the government must submit new legislation to improve the “rotation of military personnel under martial law,” meaning the issue of demobilization is likely to remain active.

“The enemy outnumbers us seven to 10 times [in eastern Ukraine]. We have a shortage of personnel,” Yurii Sodol, Commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine’s military, told Ukrainian lawmakers on Wednesday, urging them to pass the draft law.

Anastasia Bulba’s husband Vitalii volunteered to join the military immediately after Russia launched its invasion.

“The country’s defenders, on whom the independence of the entire country rests, have been deceived,” she said.

“We all understand that mobilization has failed, without which there is no demobilization. And this is the fault of the authorities, not our husbands,” she added. She claims that Ukraine’s soldiers “have been left without terms of service and with no idea when they will be able to return to their families.”

“A large part of the people do not want their loved ones to go to the front, but at the same time they want Ukraine to win,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, an analyst at the Center for Applied Political Studies.

Some of this is reminiscent of the United States in the spring of 1945. When the shocking casualty figures for the Okinawa campaign began to come in and military authorities were saying that there could be half a million casualties during the invasion of the Japanese home islands, a war weariness settled over the U.S. 

People were scared for their loved ones. They were heartily sick and tired of the rationing, the war bond drives, and the lack of consumer goods. And there was resentment against some of the men who were “4-F” and couldn’t be drafted. 

Complaining about the draft, its unfairness, the lack of rotation for troops, and the lack of support from allies are signs that Ukraine is suffering from its own war weariness. 

I believe the war will be over by Christmas, if not sooner. Its conclusion will satisfy no one.