The Pentagon is saying that the U.S. will be sending more military advisors to Ukraine along with the $61 billion in military aid approved by Congress on Saturday.
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“Throughout this conflict, the DOD has reviewed and adjusted our presence in-country, as security conditions have evolved. Currently, we are considering sending several additional advisers to augment the Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC) at the Embassy,” Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement to Politico. He added that “personnel are subject to the same travel restrictions as all embassy employees.
The ODC helps Ukraine in a variety of support and advisory positions, exclusively in non-combat roles. They are attached to the embassy and under the command of the Chief of Mission.
In addition to logistics support, the advisors will help the Ukrainian military with weapons maintenance and perform oversight of where those weapons end up. Previous shipments of U.S. weapons have occasionally ended up being diverted to less savory groups like criminal gangs that sell them to anyone, including terrorists and jihadists.
The question of how many advisors will be sent is still being decided but Pentagon sources told Politico that “up to 60” advisors will be sent.
Biden has promised that U.S. troops will not be in combat roles. We’ve heard that before. The temptation to assist Ukraine as they try to regain the initiative against Russian forces will be great.
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Ukraine has clamored for more artillery, air defenses, long-range missiles and fighter jets, which frontline troops and leading politicians insist would help the Ukrainians break through Russian lines and hold their positions.
The news that the U.S. is sending additional forces to Ukraine comes as senior officials warned last week that Russia has been gaining momentum.
CIA Director Bill Burns said Ukraine could lose the war this year if Congress didn’t approve the assistance package.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking to lawmakers, said, “We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in Russia’s favor. We are seeing them make incremental gains. We’re seeing the Ukrainians be challenged in terms of holding the line.”
Any Russian gains are likely to increase as Moscow will intensify attacks before the bulk of the new tranche of U.S. weapons can reach the battlefield and make any kind of difference.
The think tank the Institute for the Study of War said in an update on the conflict that Russia would now likely intensify its attacks on Ukraine in order to make the most of “abnormally dry spring ground conditions and persisting Ukrainian materiel shortages” ahead of the new package.
“The now expected arrival of US security assistance has likely emphasized these considerations for Russian forces,” the report said. “The Russian military command will likely intensify offensive operations and missile and drone strikes to pursue operationally significant effects that will certainly become harder to achieve against well-provisioned Ukrainian forces.”
It added that Russia will likely target areas where Ukraine’s defenses seem relatively unstable or where they are close to achieving an “operationally significant objective,” such as to the west of Avdiivka or near Chasiv Yar — both in the Donetsk region.
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A realistic goal for Ukraine — and one that Biden should insist upon — is to stabilize the front lines in the East and look to win back territory in the North. At that point, Putin might be more open to some kind of deal.
Trump could negotiate such a deal once he’s president.